The UK Economy: Light at the end of the economic tunnel

There is light at the end of the long economic tunnel for Cumbrian businesses, says Sam Lyon, who leads the Corporate and Commercial team at Cartmell Shepherd Solicitors.

Sam says businesses can still remain confident about the future despite the impact of coronavirus, Brexit and wider supply disruptions continuing to take their toll.

His comments come following an economic outlook webinar, sponsored by the UK200Group, of which Cartmell Shepherd is a member, where James Sproule, Chief Economist at leading international bank Handelsbanken, shared data, insights and a perspective on the economy.

Sam said: “Despite the turbulent times that have hit the UK economy over recent years, it’s reassuring that experts such as James Sproule are reporting a positive outlook for businesses.

“Although the UK’s near-term outlook remains a little uncertain, there are many positive signs that suggest the worst is behind us and a return to some stability is expected.”

Mr Sproule’s economic predictions included:

• The UK is unlikely to avoid a recession, but the expectation is that this will be a ‘mild recession’.

• The employment market is broadly good.

• Inflation has most likely peaked (end of 2022).

• Falling energy prices will drive inflation lower.

• Inflation will come down slowly.

• The bank base rate will increase to 4% possibly 4.5% but then it should stabilise. It’s unlikely to drop this year.

In conclusion, Mr Sproule said the outlook was not gloomy but in fact quite positive.

Sam said: “While there are still many uncertainties surrounding how exactly the UK economy will look beyond 2023 after a number of uncertain years, it looks like there is light at the end of this long economic tunnel.”

Contact Sam Lyon on sam.lyon@cartmells.co.uk or 01228 516643